Hawaii Real Estate Resource

Earlier today I posted my real estate inventory chart for the entire island of Kauai.  Although that chart showed Kauai's real estate inventory has been decreasing for over a year, Poipu on Kauai's South Shore has lagged behind.  Finally there are signs of improvement here as well.  Admittedly it was hard to get the yellow curve fit to bend at the upper right so it's still a bit early to say inventory here has peaked.  Nevertheless, it's a positive sign especially when considering the overall improvement in Kauai.

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For techies, the yellow curve superimposed on the chart is an Excel 5th-order polynomial curve fit.

Aloha,

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With over a year of of decreasing inventory, it's clear that Kauai's real estate inventory is continuing to recover from August 2008 highs.  It's rarely possible to discern trends until sufficient time has elapsed to look back and see where we have been.  For Kauai, the inventory buildup began in the Fall of 2005 and continued to build for 3 years.  Now the number of active listings has been decreasing for a full year.  This is a positive sign for stressed-out sellers.  While I expect some time to elapse before prices also begin a recovery, now may be the "sweet spot" for buyers especially since many predict that mortgage rates will soon begin to increase. 

For techies, the smooth yellow curve superimposed on the chart is an Excel 3rd-order polynomial curve fit.

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Aloha,

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information

Kauai and Muai year-to-date sales statistics through August 2009 compared to the same period in 2008 show that this continues to be an unprecedented opportunity for buyers. Selection is huge and prices are down substantially There remains a large amount of inventory to be cleared out before downward price pressures ease. An upturn in number of sales is key to that and there are hints that this may now be happening. Some economists think we may be at or near the bottom of the cycle.

This Month's Update

Year-to-Date Median Sales Price (Jan-August 2009)

Year-to-Date Number of Sales (Jan-August 2009)

One of the most striking differences between the Kauai and Maui markets is condo sales (both numbers and prices).  It has been my "soft" observation that new construction on Maui has continued through the downturn while most has stopped on Kauai and this data adds support to this.  Note that previously unreported 2009 sales of the new Honua Kai project on Maui's Westside are included for the first time.

[Data extracted from Kauai and Maui multiple list reports. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should not be relied on for buying or selling decisions. There are likely to be differing opinions and interpretations of the data.]

Aloha & Mahalo!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information

Gay & Robinson announced this week that late October would mark the end of sugar cane production on Kauai.  All other companies had previously exited the business so this is the end for what was once Kauai's main agricultural crop.  Annual burning of sugar cane fields as shown in the photo produced widespread smoke and ash but it was accepted because of the desire to keep much of the island's land in agriculture.  Perhaps it is fitting that there is a partial rainbow over the smoke in the photo below.

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There is still a possibility that sugar cane could be grown in the future for production of ethanol fuels but the infrastructure for that is not currently in place.  Source of this information is today's Garden Island Newspaper.

Many are surprised to learn that the new dominate crop is seed corn.  However this is much smaller in scale and does not need the extensive acreage of sugar cane.  Also, there is local resistance to this business because of fears about genetic modification so the jury is still out on its future. 

Aloha!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information 

Although I have posted about traveling from Hawaii to Maryland to see the Ravens play, those who know me well know that the bundle of joy I'm holding in the photo below is the real reason for the trip.  Her name is Zoe, she's just under 5 months old, and she's my first grandchild.  The Ravens game was fun but can't compare to the excitement of being a grandfather!

Aloha Zoe!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information 

My last Kauai real estate absorption rate posting back in April looked pretty awful as can be seen from the first chart below.  My current update (2nd chart) shows substantial improvement and the other color bands are now much more visible.  Residential homes on the West Side and the Central Lihue areas are now just about out of the dreaded red zone and that 156-month supply of South Shore condos is down to 55 months.  We've still got a lot of red-zone stuff but it's falling!

While the absorption rate shows substantial fluctuations due to a small number of sales in a 90-day period, it's encouraging when combined with other indicators.  Kauai inventory peaked a year ago and continues to decline and the number of sales is showing an uptick.  All these data indicators suggest an improving real estate market which may be a call to action for would-be-buyers who have been waiting for a sign.

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April 2009 Data

September 2009 Data

Aloha!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information