Paul Brewbaker presented at the Kauai Board of Realtors and Realtors Association of Maui in July. I attended the Maui meeting and came away with the following takaways.
- Ecomonic expansion cycles were 2 years before 1929, 4 years from 1933 to 1981, and then 8 years from 1982 to 2007. Currently we are into year 7 of the upswing which began in 2009. Hmmmmm...
- Neighbor Islands have 3.4% unemployment vs 4.7% entire USA. Tighter than this could generate problems.
- Stocks looking good, 7.6% price growth from 2011 to 2016. But...the trend curve appears to be breaking downward.
- He no longer thinks the Hawaii housing market is "bubblicious". He thinks the current 2% valuation uptrend is sustainable.